I am a principal economist at the Federal Reserve Board working on nontraditional data, machine learning, NLP, labor markets, and search & matching.
This is a personal website. Any results or conclusions in the research presented on this website are my own and do not necessarily represent the view of the Federal Reserve System.
Recent Working Papers
Total Recall? Evaluating the Macroeconomic Knowledge of Large Language Models (joint with Paul Soto and Akhil Karra) Working Paper, 2025
Manufacturing Sentiment: Forecasting Industrial Production with Text Analysis (joint with Tomaz Cajner, Christopher Kurz, Norman Morin, and Paul Soto) Submitted
Tracking Real Time Layoffs with SEC Filings: A Preliminary Investigation (joint with Emily Green, Molly Harnish, Will McClennan, Paul E. Soto, Betsy Vrankovich, and Jacob Williams) Working Paper, 2024
Published and Forthcoming Papers
Cyclical Labor Market Sorting (joint with Henry R. Hyatt and Seth Murray) Journal of Econometrics, 2023
Business Exit During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Non-Traditional Measures in Historical Context (joint with, Ryan A. Decker, Aaron B. Flaaen, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, and Christopher Kurz) Journal of Macroeconomics, 2022
- The $800 Billion Paycheck Protection Program: Where Did the Money Go and Why Did it Go There? (joint with David Autor, David Cho, Mita Goldar, Byron Lutz, Joshua K. Montes, William B. Peterman, David D. Ratner, Daniel Villar Vallenas, and Ahu Yildirmaz) Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2022
- Media coverage: The Economist, New York Times
An Evaluation of the Paycheck Protection Program Using Administrative Payroll Microdata (joint with David Autor, David Cho, Mita Goldar, Byron Lutz, Joshua K. Montes, William B. Peterman, David D. Ratner, Daniel Villar Vallenas, and Ahu Yildirmaz) Journal of Public Economics (short communication), 2022
- Media coverage: New York Times, Washington Post, Slate
The Labor Market During the Beginning of the Pandemic Recession (joint with Tomaz Cajner, Ryan A. Decker, John Grigsby, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, Erik Hurst, Christopher Kurz, and Ahu Yildirmaz) Brookings Papers in Economic Activity, Summer 2020
- Media Coverage: Washington Post, New York Times, The Economist, Associated Press
- Improving the Accuracy of Economic Measurement with Multiple Data Sources: The Case of Payroll Employment Data (joint with Tomaz Cajner, Ryan A. Decker, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, and Christopher Kurz) NBER volume “Big Data for Twenty-First Century Statistics”, 2022
Shorter Papers
Measuring AI Uptake in the Workplace (joint with Paul Soto and Michael Green) FEDS Note, 2025
Payroll Employment at the Weekly Frequency (joint with Tomaz Cajner, Ryan A. Decker, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, and Christopher Kurz) AEA P&P, 2023
Tracking the Labor Market with “Big Data” (joint with Tomaz Cajner, Ryan A. Decker, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, and Christopher Kurz) FEDS Note, 2019
Older Working Papers
Dynamic Beveridge Curve Accounting (joint with Hie Joo Ahn) Working Paper, 2020
Tracking Labor Market Developments during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Preliminary Assessment (joint with Tomaz Cajner, Ryan A. Decker, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, and Christopher Kurz) Working Paper, 2020
Business Dynamics in the National Establishment Time Series (NETS) (joint with Ryan A. Decker) Working Paper, 2019
Using Payroll Processor Microdata to Measure Aggregate Labor Market Activity (joint with Tomaz Cajner, Ryan A. Decker, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, Christopher Kurz, and Tyler Radler) Working Paper 2018
An Assessment of the National Establishment Time Series (NETS) Database (joint with Keith Barnatchez and Ryan A. Decker) Working Paper, 2017